Original blog
A list of articles from the original WordPress blog. Active from April 2014 to June 2021. Link here
April 23, 2021
Statement regarding No10 claims today
January 2, 2020
‘Two hands are a lot’ — we’re hiring data scientists, project managers, policy experts, assorted weirdos…
ApolloBret VictorexpertsGeorge MuellerGrovesiJudea Pearlmachine learningManhattan ProjectprocurementVictoria WoodcockWarren BuffettNovember 27, 2019
On the referendum #34: BATSIGNAL!! DON’T LET CORBYN-STURGEON CHEAT A SECOND REFERENDUM WITH MILLIONS OF FOREIGN VOTES
David DeutschEU referendumJune 26, 2019
On the referendum #33: High performance government, ‘cognitive technologies’, Michael Nielsen, Bret Victor, & ‘Seeing Rooms’
ApolloBezosBret VictorCamerondata scienceexpertsFacebookGeorge MuellerHeywoodManhattan ProjectMediaMichael NielsenpandemicsScott AlexanderSpaceWarren BuffettWMDMarch 27, 2019
On the referendum #24N: Actions have consequences
CadwalladrCollinsEU referendumVote LeaveMarch 11, 2019
On the referendum #32: Science/productivity — a) small teams are more disruptive, b) ‘science is becoming far less efficient’
Alan KayCollisonDARPAMichael NielsenScott AlexanderMarch 6, 2019
Complexity and prediction VI: a model predicts the frequency and severity of interstate wars, ‘a profound mystery for which we have no explanation’
predictionswargamesMarch 4, 2019
The most secure bio-labs routinely make errors that could cause a global pandemic & are about to re-start experiments on pathogens engineered to make them mammalian-airborne-transmissible
pandemicsMarch 1, 2019
On the referendum #31: Project Maven, procurement, lollapalooza results & nuclear/AGI safety
A2/ADAIDARPADeep MinddronesGeorge MuellerGrovesHassabisHeywoodJudea PearlLipsonO'DonnellObamaCareOgarkovONAOpenAIpandemicsPARCprocurementProject MavenQian XuesenRMAroboticsSchmidhuberSchrieverShane LeggStuart RussellswarmsFebruary 21, 2019
On the referendum #30: Genetics, genomics, predictions & ‘the Gretzky game’ — a chance for Britain to help the world
AIAlan KayDARPAGelmangenomicsHeckmanHsuIQNHSPARCPlominSeptember 11, 2018
#29 On the referendum & #4c on Expertise: On the ARPA/PARC ‘Dream Machine’, science funding, high performance, and UK national strategy
AIBill GatesChinaDARPAEU referendumexpertsGigerenzerHogarthHsuintellectual propertyIQMark WarnerOpenAIprocurementscience policySingle Marketvon NeumannWarren BuffettWMDAugust 8, 2018
On the referendum #28: Some interesting stuff on AI/ML with, hopefully, implications for post-May/Hammond decisions
AIDeep MindShane LeggJuly 28, 2018
On the referendum #24M: Carole asks me questions, I answer — can MPs handle the truth?
CadwalladrCollinsEU referendumJuly 27, 2018
On referendum #24L: Fake news from the fake news committee, Carole, and a rematch against the public
CadwalladrCollinsEU referendumFacebookJuly 22, 2018
On the referendum #24K: Observer fake news and a suggestion — I and the MPs discuss this with all of us under oath
CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveJune 18, 2018
Should we trust London police (and therefore the Mayor’s/Home Office’s) claims on crime stats?
crimeIslingtonmopedJune 11, 2018
On the referendum #27: Banks, Russia, conspiracies and Vote Leave
EU referendumVictoria WoodcockVote LeaveJune 8, 2018
On the referendum #26: How to change science funding post-Brexit [updated with comment by Alan Kay]
DARPAEU referendumimmigrationPARCscience policyJune 5, 2018
Effective action #4b: ‘Expertise’, prediction and noise, from the NHS killing people to Brexit
Alan KayBret VictorchecklistsEU referendumGeorge MuellerGigerenzerMichael NielsenNHSPARCVote LeaveMay 24, 2018
On the referendum #24J: Collins, grandstanding, empty threats & the plan for a rematch against the public
350mAdonisCampbellCBIEU referendumFacebookGeorge MuellerGoldman SachsMandelsonpolitical partiesVote LeaveMay 23, 2018
On the referendum #25: a letter to Tory MPs & donors on the Brexit shambles
EU referendumpolitical partiesUKIPVote LeaveMay 22, 2018
Effective action #4a: ‘Expertise’ from fighting and physics to economics, politics and government
AIAlan KayexpertsGlenn GouldGowersGracieHonnoldHsujiujitsuLaird HamiltonMayweatherpredictionsUFCMay 21, 2018
State-of-the-art in AI #1: causality, hypotheticals, and robots with free will & capacity for evil (UPDATED)
AIartificial neural networksJudea Pearlmachine learningpredictionsMay 21, 2018
On the referendum 24I: new research on Facebook & ‘psychographic’ microtargeting
CadwalladrFacebookKosinskipolitical partiespollsMay 18, 2018
On the referendum #24H: Facebook, data science, technology, elections, and transparency
AIQCadwalladrCRISPREU referendumFacebookHelmMerrickpolitical partiesVote LeaveMay 10, 2018
On the referendum #24G: Grandstanding MPs and the Zoolander inquiry
EU referendumVote LeaveApril 27, 2018
On the referendum #24F: Another central claim of the Observer/Channel 4 conspiracy blows up
CadwalladrCameroncharter of fundamental rightsECHREU referendumgrieveHeywoodHuman Rights ActOsborneVictoria WoodcockWylieApril 26, 2018
On the referendum #24E: Facebook proves central allegation in Observer/Channel 4 conspiracy theory is wrong
AIQCadwalladrEU referendumFacebookWylieMarch 28, 2018
On the referendum #24D: Walter Mitty, CA, and the Guardian/Observer’s own ‘personal data harvesting’
CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylieMarch 24, 2018
On the referendum #24C: Whistleblowers and C4/Observer accusations — they promised Watergate and delivered Zoolander
CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylieMarch 24, 2018
On the referendum #24B: Whistleblowers, ‘outing’, the ECHR
CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylieMarch 23, 2018
On the referendum #24: Global conspiracies and a Scooby Doo ending?
CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylieSeptember 29, 2017
Review of Allison’s book on US/China & nuclear destruction, and some connected thoughts on technology, the EU, and space
AlibabaAllisonBismarckChinaCollisonEUKoreaSun TzuTaiwanThucydidesWMDJune 23, 2017
On the referendum #23, a year after victory: ‘a change of perspective is worth 80 IQ points’ & ‘how to capture the heavens’
Alan KayBezosBill GatesDARPAEUEU referendumGeorge MuellerIQMediaMichael NielsenMonnetPARCpunditsUS ConstitutionVote LeaveWarren BuffettJune 16, 2017
Complexity and Prediction Part V: The crisis of mathematical paradoxes, Gödel, Turing and the basis of computing
GödelMichael NielsenTuringJune 12, 2017
Unrecognised simplicities of effective action #2(b): the Apollo programme, the Tory train wreck, and advice to spads starting work today
CameronOsborneSpadsVictoria WoodcockVote LeaveFebruary 14, 2017
Unrecognised simplicities of effective action #2: ‘Systems’ thinking — ideas from the Apollo programme for a ‘systems politics’
EU referendumexoplanetsGeorge MuellerTuringvon NeumannJanuary 30, 2017
On the referendum #22: Some numbers for the Vote Leave campaign
BBCBorisCameronColonel BoydEUEU referendumOsbornepollspunditsUKIPVictoria WoodcockJanuary 23, 2017
Specialist maths schools – some facts
CameronGoveIQkolmogorovmaths schoolsOsborneperelmanJanuary 14, 2017
Please help: how to make a big improvement in the alignment of political parties’ incentives with the public interest?
political partiesJanuary 13, 2017
Unrecognised simplicities of effective action #1: expertise and a quadrillion dollar business
Colonel BoydCRISPRdronesEUexpertsHFTmachine learningMichael NielsenpredictionsThielVote LeavewargamesJanuary 9, 2017
On the referendum #21: Branching histories of the 2016 referendum and ‘the frogs before the storm’
BBCBismarckBlairBorisCameronCleggColonel BoydCraig DreDavid DeutschECHREUEU referendumexpertsForeign OfficeGisela StuartGoveHeywoodLlewellynMediapollspredictionspunditsSingle MarketTetlockUKIPVote LeaveNovember 24, 2016
A review of Tetlock’s ‘Superforecasting’ (2015)
expertsIQpredictionspunditssuperforecastersTetlockOctober 29, 2016
On the referendum #20: the campaign, physics and data science – Vote Leave’s ‘Voter Intention Collection System’ (VICS) now available for all
CameronCraig Dredata scienceEUEU referendumexpertsGoveGowersLlewellynmachine learningMediaPaul StephensonpollsPPEpredictionspunditsThucydidesVICSVictoria WoodcockVote LeaveJuly 3, 2016
On the referendum #19: Final message from Vote Leave HQ to our supporters
BorisCameronEU referendumGoveSingle MarketOctober 6, 2015
On the referendum #18: the ECJ uses the Charter of Fundamental Rights to take more power over the UK, this is just the start
September 26, 2015
On the referendum #17: The state of the campaign
5 Presidents ReportCameronEU referendumpollsSingle MarketUKIPUN 1951 conventionSeptember 15, 2015
On the referendum #16: New ICM poll shows differential turnout could be important, only a third support the failing EU project
EU referendumpollsSeptember 1, 2015
On the referendum #15: Good news, Cameron changes the question – and a new poll
5 Presidents ReportCameronEU referendumAugust 26, 2015
On the referendum #14: latest ICM poll, numbers move slightly toward NO but normal variation
EU referendumpollsAugust 18, 2015
On the referendum #13: new ICM poll shows growing support for Yes/In; couple of other thoughts on education and judgement
BBCEU referendumpollspunditsThucydidesAugust 8, 2015
On the referendum #12: new ICM poll shows 46-36 for staying in the EU; education, BBC, propaganda, Willie Munzenberg
5 Presidents ReportBBCEU referendumForeign OfficeGisela StuartMandelsonMediapollspunditsJuly 20, 2015
On the referendum #11: new ICM poll on a second referendum idea, Boris etc
5 Presidents ReportBorisCameronEU referendumpollsJuly 7, 2015
On the referendum #10: Do you want to be a hammer or an anvil? Building a team for the NO campaign
EU referendumJuly 7, 2015
Book review: How to run a Government, by Michael Barber
BlairCameronchessKasparovMichael BarberSpadsSteve HiltonJuly 6, 2015
On the referendum #9: Cameron begins his renegotiation, the Commission sets out its timetable for new Treaty pre-2025, BJ & SJ make moves, a Greek ‘no’
5 Presidents ReportBBCBorisCameronderivativesECHREU referendumGoldman SachsLlewellynSajid DavidSingle MarketJune 30, 2015
On the Referendum #7: Transparency for our Potemkin government – Memo to ministers and spads thinking about how you could help the NO campaign
CameronEU referendumHeywoodLlewellynJune 23, 2015
On the Referendum #6: Exit plans and a second referendum
BorisCameronColonel BoydEU referendumpunditsSingle MarketJune 21, 2015
On the Referendum #5: reports of an anti-EU advertising campaign; Greece, the euro, and predictions
Adair TurnerBBCChris PattenEU referendumHeseltineKen ClarkeLlewellynMandelsonpredictionsTetlockUKIPJune 19, 2015
On the referendum #4: An Exploratory Committee and the beginning of a NO campaign
EU referendumSingle MarketJune 3, 2015
On the Referendum #3: The errors of Steve Richards
BBCEU referendumMediapunditsSingle MarketSteve RichardsMay 30, 2015
On the Referendum #2: The Lisbon Treaty compared with the Articles of Confederation & US Constitution
CameronEpsteinEU referendumSingle MarketUS ConstitutionMay 11, 2015
On the Referendum #1: Gove and the Human Rights Act
CameronECHREU referendumGoveHuman Rights ActJanuary 27, 2015
Standards In English Schools Part I: The introduction of the National Curriculum and GCSEs
BakerGoveGowersHoskinsJosephMark WarnerOfqualOfstedTeacher trainingThatcherDecember 4, 2014
Times op-ed: What Is To Be Done? An answer to Dean Acheson’s famous quip
'Odyssean' educationCameronCleggGoveGowersHsuMichael NielsenPhysics for Presidentsvon NeumannNovember 13, 2014
Low quality journalism from Prospect on the sensitive subject of genes and IQ
Essay updatesHsuIQMediaPlominOctober 30, 2014
The Hollow Men II: Some reflections on Westminster and Whitehall dysfunction
CameronCleggGoveLlewellynSpadsSeptember 17, 2014
Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics IV – The birth of computational thinking
September 11, 2014
Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics III – von Neumann and economics as a science
predictionsvon NeumannSeptember 10, 2014
Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics II: controlled skids and immune systems (UPDATED)
'Odyssean' educationEssay updatespandemicspredictionsAugust 26, 2014
UPDATE DOC – Open Policy Experiment 1: School Direct and Initial Teacher Training
EduWikiOfstedSpadsTeacher trainingAugust 19, 2014
‘Standin’ by the window, where the light is strong’: de-extinction, machine intelligence, the search for extra-solar life, autonomous drone swarms bombing Parliament, genetics & IQ, science & politics, and much more @ SciFoo 2014
'Odyssean' educationartificial neural networksBasic incomeCRISPRdronesexoplanetsGeorge ChurchGershenfeldGoogleHelbingHsuIQPlanetary Nervous SystemSuarezvon NeumannJuly 22, 2014
Open Policy Experiment 1: School Direct and Initial Teacher Training (UPDATED 25/7)
EduWikiSpadsTeacher trainingJuly 17, 2014
Wargame predictions from 2010 – how well did the Cameroons do?
CameronpredictionswargamesJune 30, 2014
My report for Business for Britain on the dynamics of the debate over the EU, and a small but telling process point on the EU
EUMay 13, 2014
Babble in the Bubble: UFSM, Clegg’s lies, and the general dysfunction of the British state
CleggFSMMarch 14, 2014
A few thoughts on free school meals, Ofsted, and an answer to S Jenkins
CleggFSMOfstedSpadsNovember 19, 2013